Since late February, the domestic propylene market, which has been approaching a record high in the past two years and the second highest point in the past six years (see where will propylene approaching the historical high go?), has plummeted by more than 1,300 yuan to around 8,000 yuan in mid and late March. , building a foundation with shocks, rising all the way and rising in a wide range after the "May 1st" holiday, jumping to about 8,800 yuan, setting the second highest price this year; the market focus has moved up as a whole, returning to the more than 4 months since the beginning of March this year. The high point of this stage is also the high point of the domestic propylene market in the past 8 years, and then it started a downward journey of nearly 2 weeks.
Market Reasons
1. Strong raw materials, cost support
British Brent crude oil futures continued to rise on April 26, closing at $109.34/barrel as of the 29th, a cumulative increase of nearly 7% within 4 days; after the holiday, it returned to above $110/barrel; U.S. WTI crude oil futures also fluctuated upward, and then Back to more than 109 US dollars / barrel. Both pulled back to the all-time high in the past 8 years, which was set in early March this year. On May 30, British Brent crude oil futures closed at $121.67 per barrel; the latest WTI price was $115.07 per barrel on May 27.
The main coal company ZC9999 rose sharply on April 29. The highest was 896.6 yuan/ton, a single-day increase of 9.4% from the 28th high of 819.2 yuan/ton. The high price on May 30 was 896.8 yuan / ton. The price of methanol main company MA9999 also fluctuated and rose. From the high of 2,728 yuan/ton on April 29 to 2,823 yuan/ton on May 23, an increase of nearly 3.5%. Propane has also risen 5% since April 29.
2. Reduce the load of the device and reduce the external supply
At the beginning of March, the operating rate of domestic PDH installations continued to decline, from 79% to about 68%, with a monthly decrease of about 11%. At the same time, the operating rate of Zhejiang Xingxing and Ningbo Fude plants of MTO technology also declined. The overall supply of propylene decreased.
3. Downstream sentiment is good
The price of polypropylene main chain PP9999, which accounts for nearly 70% of the downstream consumption of propylene, has bottomed out since April 26, and the price has continued to rise. From 8633 yuan / ton to 8950 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.67% in 5 days.
The market price of propylene oxide, which accounts for 7% of consumption, rose by nearly 5% within 5 days before and after "May Day". The butyl and octanol markets, which account for 6% of consumption, continue to rise and skyrocket following the trend of bottoming out before the holiday. In North China, the daily ton of butanol rose by nearly 1,000 yuan. Other regions also have a single-day increase of 700~800 yuan / ton. The single-day ton of octanol rose by nearly 600 yuan in East China, and around 400 yuan in other areas.
4. Demand grows
Since mid to late April, the operating rate of PP, butanol and other products has rebounded. In particular, PP powder increased by 18.3% within a week. Demand for raw material propylene increased.
5. Factors such as the increase in epidemic containment and control affect the regional allocation of resources
From the end of April to mid-May, the epidemic continued to spread and rebound, and many places continued to be closed and controlled. High-speed entrances and exits are closed, traffic is temporarily controlled, and vehicles with dangerous goods on high-speed national highways are restricted on May 1. The transportation is not smooth, and the local resources are tight; the supply of imported goods to Hong Kong is blocked, the quantity is reduced, and the price is increased.
